Smurfit-Stone: Still a Buy

A NY presenter continues to recommend Smurfit-Stone Container (NYSE: SSCC, $24.71) as a Buy. He notes that the company's October box numbers were good. While OCC prices have risen a bit in the recent weeks, increasing COGS for Q4, the presenter still believes that the Street estimates are too low for Q4 and 2011. He targets $34 in 12 months, which is based on 7x his 2011 EBITDAP-CAPEX projection of $700 mm, less $1bn of tax-adjusted pension, less $750 million in net debt, plus $300 mm in the present value of SSCC's NOLs, and using 100 million fully diluted shares.