Market forecasting

Never being one to try to "predict the market" I can't help continuing to ask businesses how the fall is looking. The run up in the market is making folks feel better and as a leading indicator it does seem to be saying the correction overreacted in the winter and that the economy reached bottom in August /September. Thus a spring market recovery indicated not only improvement in the economy but an end to the gloom and doom that the financial/credit meltdown would cause a return to the 30's. So it wasn't as bad as some thought it might get and maybe the worst is behind us. But I am not hearing manufacturers talk about anything other than inventory reductions overshot and rebuilding supply chain. Outside of auto stimulus and government spending economic improvement is very spotty. So how will a market act when it realizes we are not in a "U" or "V" curve and maybe not a "W" even. But what about an "L" what happens in a market. It seems to me after an initial retrenchment it should hesitate to see any signs of sustaining. As a forecaster it seems to indicate stability but from this point earnings wont come from continued cost cutting. Businesses cut fast and hard. Now not much left to cut. Those that cut SG&A the most have outperformed. Now we need revenue growth for any more move. Not seeing it yet in any sustainable form and with consensus saying we are in a recovery the banking system is not going along. When was the last time the economy grew without loan growth or the consumer. Very hesitant right now.